Professional forecasters nearly unanimously agree that planned across-the-board
spending cuts and other fiscal shenanigans will hold back the U.S. economy this
year.
A National Association for Business Economics survey of 49 economists found
that 95% say that uncertain U.S. fiscal situation is a drag on the country's growth
prospects. Those worries aren't limited to the budge slashing set to take place
on Friday alone, but also include a possible late-March government shutdown
and a spring debate over the debt ceiling.
The result is expectiation for relatively slow growth in the first half of the year
followed by increasing gains during the summer and the fall. The consensus
forecast is for the domestic product to grow 2.4% for all of 2013. That still
compares favorable with last year's 1.5% advance.
Economists see little change that lawmakers will advert the steep sequestration
reductions in the next few days. Nearly 60% said the cuts will occur on Friday.
They are divided on how deep a drag those reductions will be on the economy.
About 40% surveyed said fiscal policy will be a more than half-percentage
point drag on GDP grothw, but more than 50% saw a smaller impact.
Sheila McKinney
